At its January meeting, the member countries of the OECD Arrangement, within the framework of the Country Risk Experts Group (CREG), decided to improve the classification of three countries. Armenia, Moldova and Oman each moved up by one level in the OECD country risk classification. The upgrade mainly reflects favourable macroeconomic developments, stronger fiscal indicators, ongoing reforms and growing investor confidence. For export credit agencies such as Eximbanka, these countries now represent a lower level of risk when covering trade and investment transactions.
“The decisions of the expert group confirm that a combination of macroeconomic stability and growth, fiscal discipline and reform efforts translates into an improved country risk profile. The cases of Armenia, Moldova and Oman demonstrate that strengthening institutions, diversifying the economy and pursuing responsible economic policies increase investor confidence even in a challenging geopolitical environment,” said Pavol Tavač, Deputy CEO of Eximbanka.
Armenia (upgrade from Category 6 to Category 5)
Armenia’s improved classification reflects stable and above-average economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by around 5% in 2025 and 2026. Growth is driven mainly by strong performance in services, construction and finance, as well as continued investment. Higher economic output contributes to rising government revenues and reduces the country’s dependence on external financing.
Rating upgrades by external agencies point to declining risks, stronger growth prospects and improvements in fiscal and external balances. Medium-term fiscal plans focus on gradual consolidation of public finances and deficit reduction while maintaining spending on security, social measures and infrastructure. Armenia also maintains a moderate public debt-to-GDP ratio (above 50%) and has improved foreign exchange reserve coverage of external payments.
From a geopolitical perspective, progress toward peace with Azerbaijan is seen as a key factor that could significantly strengthen investor confidence. The country is also moving toward closer integration and cooperation with the EU, while relations with Russia are becoming more complex. A sensitive domestic political issue remains the approach to resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and its consequences.
Moldova (upgrade from Category 7 to Category 6)
The year 2025 marked a significant milestone for Moldova, as the country was rated by all three major global rating agencies for the first time, signalling its deeper integration into international credit markets. The improved classification was supported mainly by ongoing institutional reforms, progress in EU integration, and close cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Moldova’s intention to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States has also been positively assessed, underlining the country’s strategic orientation toward Western partners. The economy has recorded improving macroeconomic indicators, a favourable growth outlook, and a sustainable, moderate level of public debt.
However, structural economic vulnerabilities persist, particularly high external deficits, low economic diversification, and political uncertainty linked to the electoral cycle and reform continuity. The country’s risk profile is also influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions resulting from the conflict in Ukraine.
Oman (upgrade from Category 4 to Category 3)
Oman is currently on a markedly positive trajectory compared to previous years. The economy has continued to expand and demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, supported by GDP growth and significant improvements in fiscal and external balances. Rating upgrades reflect strengthening public and external accounts and rising investor confidence.
The country has made substantial progress in consolidating its fiscal and external positions while continuing to implement Oman Vision 2040. Although real activity in the oil sector declined by 3.6% due to lower production and oil prices, the non-hydrocarbon sector grew by 4.2%, driven by extensive private investment. Despite positive developments, Oman’s economy remains vulnerable due to its continued dependence on hydrocarbons, which account for approximately 35% of GDP and nearly 70% of government revenues. However, the country benefits from higher GDP per capita compared to peer economies, long-term fiscal prudence, reform policies, and a significant reduction in public debt, which has fallen from around 68% to 36% of GDP over five years.
Source: Eximbanka
