Bratislava, 2 April 2025 – In the latest quarterly publication of the think-tank Council of Slovak Exporters, one of the possible scenarios of the current spiral of tariffs and retaliatory measures is a global economic recession caused by an escalating trade war.

This scenario assumes that the US will continue to adopt and increase trade tariffs, as President Trump announced today, leading to reciprocal measures from China, the EU and other major economies. Tariff measures could be followed by increased global competition in areas such as technology or access to critical raw materials. This would result in significant supply chain disruptions, slowing global trade with a major impact on multinational corporations, production-intensive and export-dependent economies, as is the case in Slovakia. Inflationary pressures would increase as import costs rise, potentially leading to higher consumer prices and a reduction in global demand, which could ultimately trigger a global recession and a partial dedollarisation of world trade as countries look for alternatives.

“We are afraid that from 3 April, when the US tariffs on the automotive industry come into force, we will feel the consequences of the monotony of the Slovak economy. Regardless of what is causing the crisis, the extent of the crisis is the result of short-term, non-critical and unsystematic measures that have dominated the Slovak economy for years.” – said Lukáš Parízek, Chairman of the Council of Slovak Exporters.

EXPORT ANALYTICA is an analytical platform of the Council of Slovak Exporters, bringing together experts with a focus on current international trade events, who prepare proposals for measures and expert opinions on current topics. Council of Slovak Exporters (CSE) is a business association that promotes the interests of the Slovak private sector in the field of exports with a collective voice. It currently brings together over 100 members and partners from various sectors who export products and services worldwide. CSE manages the online Database of Slovak Exporters and operates the information portal www.export.sk. The Association is a member of the Slovak Government Council for Competitiveness and Productivity and has a wide international network of partner organisations.